Importance of Scenarios

In this month's edition of Atlantic Monthly, there are some glimpses at possible futures for the US War on Terror that will curl your toes and straighten your hair.

Richard Clarke, the former White House expert on terrorism, crafts a bleak, but credible scenario titled Ten Years Later; it is written as an imagined transcript of the "Tenth Anniversary 9/11 Lecture" delivered by a professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government.

As in-house counterterrorism expert with an 11-year term serving Clinton and both Bush administrations, Richard Clarke's Atlantic scenario is designed to make us think about the unintended consequneces of policy decisions since 9/11.

The piece weaves together a history of renewed attacks on US shopping malls, rail infrastructure, public transportation and even Las Vegas casinos and "Mouseworld".

Why would anyone do this? Why put such a terrifying scenario out there?

Because scenarios are tools for thinking through possible futures.

Without being too sci-fi about it, the future is infinitely permiable. And whether one belives in Predestination or Free Will, our experience in time is: (a) we are constantly faced with choices defined by limited information; and, (b) we must make decisions as to what to do next!

Tom Conger, founder of Social Technologies, a research firm in Washington DC, defines scenarios as "tools to foster conversations and develop new strategies."

In order to be useful tools, however, a scenario must be a cohesive story - just like a novel or short story - with believeable characters, and a good plot that follows a plausible chain of events. Most important, the scenario must challenge the reader's assumptions and ardently test their current thinking and strategies.

This is because scenarios, unlike great novels, need to lead us to successful applications of strategy, technology, and deployment of people, money and material. The best scenarios reveal a systems view, delineating relationships and causality. They demonstrate why things are the way they are, and what may be some unintended consequences of current actions. Conger has seen the scenarios crafted by his company used to design strategies in the military, marketing, economics and various communities of practice in the public and private sectors.

Some dangers in working with scenarios involve forgetting that they speak of possibilities, not predictions; no particular set of scenarios could ever represent of all possible futures. Major work goes into imagining, testing, and editing scenarios before they are exposed to a large group of decision makers.

Fortunately, Clarke still sees a hopeful outcome, as long as we heed the lessons of this dark vision of one possible future.

More Resources

Richard Clarke, a former counterterrorism adviser to President Bush who has been critical of the Bush administration's policies on terrorism and Iraq, says the Sept. 11 commission's report does not adequately address what can be done to prevent terrorist attacks. Hear Clarke and NPR's Scott Simon.

Richard Clarke's scenario for dark times facing the US War on Terror
Review at OnPointRadio.org.

"Ten Years Later" by Richard Clarke (Atlantic Monthly)

Interiew with Richard Clarke" (Atlantic Monthly)

Richard Clarke, at War With Himself (Time)

National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States

The Complete 9/11 Commission Report (7 MB PDF)